From September 29: Week 4 – Thursday Night in Cincy: Jaguars vs Bengals

Our pick is in for this match up. We are going with the Bengals at home. The networks are making this a Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence shoot out. The problem with that theory, though, is one team has a defense and the other does not.

The 5 teams whose defense have allowed the most points this season are:

Detroit (95), KC (95), Atlanta (94), Washington (92), and Jacksonville gave up 91 points in 3 games. That’s an average of 30 points a game they have given up thus far.

On the flip side, the top defensive teams after Week 3 are:

Denver (26), Carolina (30), New Orleans (42), Buffalo (44), New England (51) and Cincinnati with (54). They have given up an average of 18 points a game presently.

The Jaguars are grouped with the bottom teams on Defense and Cincinnati are with the top teams on Defense.

Jacksonville gives up 30 points a game and Cincinnati gives up 18. That’s a 12 point difference.

On offense, the Bengals score 22 a game vs just under 18 for the Jags in the first 3 weeks of the 2021 season. There are 4 more points to be found with the Bengals. Joe Mixon is healthy and will pound the line.

These 2 young QBs match up well. We have to give Joe Brurrows the edge because he has completed 53 of 75 passes. I like a QB who completes 70% of his throws, has more experience, more weapons at his disposal, and is playing with a better team. The big question is: can the Bengals cover the 7 ½ point spread? We are going to try to buy a point and stay under 7.